Is the Real Estate Market Going To Crash?


Google says the number one thing people searched on Google today was, “Is the real estate market going to crash?”. We’re here to discuss what’s happening in the real estate market in Wilmington NC. The answer to the question, “Is the real estate market going to crash?”  It’s not crashing here.


The market is still hot! The average amount of days for a home to be on the market is 18. That’s down from last year, where the average was 20 days. That’s incredible because that’s the amount of days from when the listing hits the market until the day the transaction closes. When I started real estate in 2007, I would have sellers sign a 12 month listing agreement with me because the average amount of time a house was on the market then was 9-12 months. I think it’s all about perspective. The market shifted from being absolutely insane to just hot, and people are asking, “is the real estate market going to crash?”. If you compare today’s market to the market I started in, today’s market doesn’t look so bleak. 


The real estate market is healthy! 6-8 months ago, a house could hit the market at 12:00 PM and I’d have 15 people calling me saying they need me to put in an offer without seeing the house because they are stuck at work and they know they need to jump on this house. People were offering way above asking price with large amounts of due diligence. Realtors didn’t even have time to print flyers before the house was sold, and a ton of agents did nothing more than throw a sign in the yard. Now they’re actually negotiating a little bit. So now, houses are selling quickly, but not within 10 seconds. 


Buyers are actually able to go see houses before they submit offers, instead of offering a good deal over the asking price, sight unseen. They can go to open houses, which was not the case 6-8 months ago. The market is still hot enough that buyers do need to be actively looking. Houses are not going to sit on the market, but at least people have a chance to go look at the houses. They have a little breathing room. 


The housing supply in the Wilmington area is still low. It’s down 22%from last year. Demand is still high, and only growing. NC is in the top 10 states for inbound moves, and Wilmington is in the top 2 cities in NC for inbound moves. Wilmington is a super desirable place to live. Home values in New Hanover county are projected to rise 5% this year. Over the last 63 years, the appreciation rate averaged at 3.68%, so the present market is well above that 63 year average.


The real estate market is one of the best investments you can make, and it always has been. Values have risen 15% over the last year and are projected to rise another 5%. 

Elon Musk even says that the real estate market is the best thing to put your money into. It’s the largest builder of wealth in the world, so when we’re talking about consumer confidence levels in real estate, I’m not going to submit to the doom and gloom that we’re getting from the media. The Fed got behind. They should have been raising interest rates a long time ago, but they waited too long and now they’re playing catch up. Believe it or not, when the Fed raises the Fed funds rate, the more interest rate hikes we see, it’s actually good for long term rates. The rates will come down again. 


It’s important to consider interest rates, of course, but I don’t think those rates should negatively impact consumer confidence levels in real estate. I like to think of it this way: You Marry the House. You Date the Rate. You can purchase a home and enjoy the appreciation, and refinance when the rates come back down. If you have the ability to buy, rising interest rates are no excuse to continue renting. 

There are a ton of alternative loan programs out there to empower buyers to make a purchase. When you rent, you’re paying 100% interest and gaining zero equity. Rental rates in the Wilmington area are already so steep, with the average 3 bedroom apartment costing $2K/month, and the rates continuing to climb. So if you pay $2K a month, that's $24K a year that is just gone. 


Homeownership is the greatest builder of wealth, so it just makes sense to buy a home. You need a place to live. Media is currently determining consumer confidence levels in real estate, and it’s really a bunch of hype. If you’re watching the news and asking yourself, “Is the real estate market going to crash?”, remind yourself not to buy into the frenzy.


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